Football Dutching Strategy
Dutching on betting markets – The Concept
You may already be familiar with Dutching. But if you are not, here is the concept.
When you place a back bet into a betting market or with a bookmaker or sportsbook you are doing traditional gambling. You are betting on something to win. If you don’t pick a winner, you lose your stake. Your stake is fixed and your return varies depending on the odds you are given.
When Dutching you are more or less doing the opposite. You pick how much you want to win against your stake then apply that to your bet. The great thing is you don’t need to pick just one winner, you only choose one selection from range of selections in the market.
Feb 18, 2021 One of my favourite, easy, football strategies is to dutch together multiple correct scores to make one bet that wins more often than not. I call this the Dutching Correct Score Strategy. Below I have excerpted some interesting info from the Betting School private members report on correct score betting. Dutching Correct Score Strategy.
- Dutching correct scores is a very popular soccer dutching strategy. It’s also one of the most straightforward. The idea here is simply to cover a selection of the most likely final scores, by placing the necessary correct score wagers. This strategy is extremely flexible, as you can choose whichever correct scores you think are the most likely.
- Dutching strategies are most commonly used to win at horse racing. They can also be applied to football games and other types of sports bet too. So, what is this and how can you win using the right strategies? The truth is that it is a simple concept but one that you need to understand well before starting.
- Aug 30, 2018 Dutching is a sports betting strategy when, after choosing an event, you bet only on the most likely outcomes instead of all, excluding betting on outcomes with low probability. Note that the odds you bet on must form an arbitrage. In this article, we will not go into the basic knowledge of arbitrage betting.
You only place back bets when you Dutch in a traditional sense, you don’t place a lay bet. This betting strategy is not about the stake on each selection, but all about the amount staked across multiple selections, but you limit your total stake for an equal profit.
To give you some more insight. Let us say you are Dutching the Grand National, probably the most famous horse race in the world. There are 40 runners in that race but only one can win. Picking that winner is incredibly hard on what can only be described as ‘Bingo on legs’. With Dutching you choose how much you want to win and pick multiple selections, of which only one needs to win.
Advanced Dutching calculator in Bet Angel
One thing that can be frustrating with traditional and basic Dutching is that you choose three or four selections/runners in a market only to see it’s the fifth one that wins meaning your regular dutch bet is lost.
Bet Angel’s advanced Dutching tool offers a solution to this with a method of Dutching often referred to as Variable Dutching.
When you look at the staking methods available in the Bet Angel Dutching tool one of the methods you’ll see is ‘Back to a Target Profit of’. As its name suggests with this method you simply set the profit you want to achieve then tick the selections/runners you want to Dutch and Bet Angel will calculate the individual stakes required so that each selection picked will return a profit of £25 if it wins.
Taking Back Control
That’s not the best part of using this method, Bet Angel then allows you to take further control and ‘Override’ this target profit for individual selections. Therefore you could say something like, I want to make £25 if the Fav or 2nd Fav wins, but only make a profit of £15 if the 3rd Fav wins and want to breakeven if the 4th – 6th Fav wins – and you’ll take a loss on any other selection winning.
Overriding your target profit effectively lets you weight your profits more towards the selections/runners you think more likely to win and less on towards those your not so sure of, the overall effect of this is it then reduces any losses you have on the remaining selections.
Dutching a football correct score market
You can use Dutching on all your favourite sports. Here is an example of me using Advanced Dutching in a Correct Score market in a football match were I’ll be ‘Backing to a Target Profit’ of £25 in a match between Bournemouth and Spurts.
After evaluating the match I’m expecting it to be a low scoring game which I think Spurs may just edge. Of course, being uncertain of what the actual score might be I’m going to be Dutching several correct score lines and covering a few outcomes and using Bet Angels advanced Dutching calculator will be weighing the profits more on low scoring wins for Spurs while still covering other score lines in some way.
In the image below I’ve ticked the 10 score lines I want to Dutch, for the purposes of this example I’ve just taken the current back prices for all of them but if I wanted to I could have offered some of the bets at the current lay price or set my own manual prices. Regardless of which is used Bet Angel will then work out the stakes required for each selection and show them to you in the ‘Stakes’ column.
In the ‘Override’ target profit column I’ve ticked the score lines I wish to change the profit for.
If the match finishes 0-0, 1-0 & 1-1 scores I don’t want to risk anything so have overridden the target profits of these so I win £0. In other words, if any of these scores is the final result I’m prepared to walk away from this bet without winning or losing anything.
For 2-0, 2-1 & 0-3 I’m prepared to lose a fiver should the game finish with one of these scores.
The remaining low scoring wins for Spurs I will profit £25 (my target amount).
I’ve now created a position for myself where believing it will be a low scoring match that Spurs may edge I can only lose my full stake if Bournemouth win 3-0 or there are 4 or more goals.
Providing the match ends with any other score it will return either a profit, break-even or minimal £5 loss.
Bet Angel’s – Advanced Dutching calculator
Bet Angel has always been about doing things differently and when we looked at Dutching we decided to mix things up a bit. So Bet Angel has the most advanced dutching calculator available. Using it you can do a whole range of clever things, instantaneously.
Bet Angel will do all the complicated calculations and you just need to decide what selections to cover and how much you want to win. Bet Angel will calculate everything for you, you just need to hit the place bets button.
Bet Angel’s Dutching tool works in practice mode. So feel free to log in to Bet Angel in practice mode and find out more about its Advanced dutching calculator. See the video for more guidance.
Dutching exists in many different forms and whilst I have looked at horse racing pretty extensively elsewhere, I am yet to sit down and try and tackle the question of how football fits.
A big part of this is in the approach that you need as dutching with football as your base can be hard work and exhausting keeping on top of everything, however in many respects, football is also an ideal candidate for a dutching system.
It is first important to understand what dutching is, and although I will go into the topic in much greater detail, it is important to establish that dutching is placing stakes in such a way that regardless of the outcome of an event, there will be a profit or at the very least, minimal losses.
Whilst this may initially sound very similar to arbitrage and matched betting (two of dutching’s arguably more famous cousins), there are in fact some very important key differences and at the centre of this is flexibility.
Review Contents
What is Football Dutching?
I have already touched upon the fact that football is an ideal candidate for dutching and this is in part due to the potential number of outcomes. Ideally when dutching, you would search for something that has flexibility in possible outcomes, as this allows you to better identify different markets that hold profit.
Where football can become difficult however is in the types of betting that you are doing and the odds that are available as they can often be less than favourable. This is where the most valuable tool that any dutching bettor can have comes into play, a dutching calculator.
There are various examples of these available online and they will show you how much you need to stake on each bet and what the outcome will be.
There also does not have to be any more than 2 matches that can be dutched.
For exaple if you look at the following screenshot of a football match between Arsenal and Swansea, using Betangel, you can see just how the matches can be dutched:
All of that having been said, there is one very clear advantage to football that doesn’t come with something like horse racing and this is the number of different bets that you can place.
For example, in an upcoming game between Aston Villa and Newcastle United, if I were to look to “dutch” based on the match winner and covering the draw, I would lose a small amount. When covering all bets going from 0-0 all the way to 2-2 however, I was able to secure a small profit, so long as the score ended up in this range (a very plausible scenario).
I won’t start to break down the numbers here as there are simply too many, but I was able to identify this dutching bet simply by using Skybet’s odds for the game.
What all of this means for dutching football games is that there is a lot of flexibility. With horse racing, there is only one outcome and that is that one horse wins. With football, there are plenty of different betting markets that you can take advantage of.
If you can’t make a match profitable by dutching the winner, you can look at the over/under goals market, you can spread your net wider and look at the scores and so on and so forth.
When you are dutching, without a doubt the two most important things to consider are the odds and the quantity of outcomes. The higher the odds are, the more likely you are to be able to lock in a profit for yourself, however generally speaking, the higher the odds the more outcomes you have to cover.
Football Dutching Calculator
If you watch the video below, it explains how you can use a calculator to make your dutching much easier. It is explained by Peter Webb, the well know Betfair professional:
The number of outcomes is something that can be easily managed with football based dutching as you likely know about the sport and so have an idea what results may come up (using my above example, I can’t see Villa and Newcastle getting above 2-2) so you can adjust the number of bets that place to produce a risk/reward level that you are happy with.The odds side of things is slightly more difficult to work with. Personally, I think that you should be looking to bookies as a first port of call. This is because bookmakers will generally accept any bets at the odds that they are offering. This means that if you can identify a profitable bet, you know that it will go ahead.
This is in direct contrast to a betting exchange where you have to wait in order to get your bets matched. That having been said, the odds with a betting exchange do have a degree more flexibility.
What Kind of Football Dutching Systems Are Available?
When it comes to football dutching, in the main you can expect to see two different types of systems. The first is information based with this kind of system typically based around introducing you to the method of betting, showing you what you need to do etc.
These kinds of football dutching systems are great for those who want to be able to bet independently and not necessarily be tied down to a tipster or advisor who is telling you what to do.
This brings me neatly on to the other kind of service that you may see which are tipsters and advisors (funnily enough). This kind of football dutching system will usually provide you with straight forward advice.
Calculations are generally already done and you simply have to place the bets provided. This kind of service is generally much rarer however and comes with its own sets of complications.
What are the Pros and Cons of Football Dutching?
Football is a great example of where you can use dutching in order to make a sport almost guaranteed to be profitable and this is mostly down to the number of markets that are available. This gives it a huge edge over say, horse racing dutching which can carry more risk.
In terms of the two types of system that are available, I feel that you are best trying to pursue something training based as dutching is a betting type that can’t ever be truly automated.
Instead, this is the kind of thing that needs you to be switched on and have a keen mind if you want to be successful at it, and as long as you are blindly following instruction, there will remain a possibility for tings to go very wrong.
Conclusion on Football Dutching Methodologies
There are various different methods of dutching and sports that you can bet on. Perhaps rather surprisingly, they differ hugely from one to the next.
In the case of football dutching, I think that it is probably one of the better sports you can engage with.
Football Dutching Strategy Against
You don’t really need to know a lot about football to see where there is potential value which is much different to something like horse racing where even professional bettors struggle to consistently identify winners.
Football Dutching Strategy Tactics
Dutching itself is a very interesting, if occasionally time consuming method of betting. It can eliminate huge swathes of risk at a small cost of your winnings being diminished.
Don’t get me wrong, this isn’t a flawless method of betting, despite what some unscrupulous people might tell you, and it can be time consuming. The rewards however are very much there for those people who are willing to make the investment.
To put football dutching in a nutshell, it is basically sharing the risk amongst a few selections/outcomes. There, I cannot say it any simpler than that 🙂
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